The Ministry of Finance is projecting steady, moderate growth in Ontario’s economy. The government’s balanced plan rests on establishing a robust and comprehensive fiscal foundation.

There is a further risk that the businesses most impacted by the federal carbon tax will move their operations out of the province and into jurisdictions that do not have carbon taxes, negatively impacting the Canadian economy without reducing overall global emissions. Outlays on durable goods were flat in the quarter as higher spending on new trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles (+0.8%) was offset by declines in new passenger cars (-3.8%) and used motor vehicles (-0.7%). Since then, annual deficits have added $107.3 billion in accumulated debt, bringing the Province’s total net debt to $353.7 billion. Since June 2018, more than 272,000 net new jobs have been created and the unemployment rate is near historical lows. In 2017, about 864,000 workers were underutilized in Ontario.

In addition to trade tensions, slowing domestic demand is having an impact on China’s growth. By comparison, real GDP in the United States increased 2.3%. Can't find what you're looking for? The Canadian dollar is expected to average 77.6 cents US in 2018 and rise gradually to 79.4 cents US in 2021. Although growth has been uneven over the past four quarters, on average over that period the Ontario economy has been expanding at a slightly stronger pace than Canada and the average of the G7 countries.

The industrial capacity utilization rate in Ontario is estimated to have risen to 85.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2018, recovering to pre-recession levels.

The government is committed to addressing the debt burden, put the Province’s finances on a more sustainable path and balance the budget by 2023.

The government inherited a challenging fiscal situation from the previous government â€” for most of the past 15 years, unsustainable spending has resulted in structural deficits and an unprecedented increase in public debt, leaving the Province vulnerable to future economic shocks. The recently announced USMCA on trade will lessen uncertainty in Ontario and potentially boost economic growth by prompting higher business investment and exports. This line chart shows the 10-year Government of Canada bond rate and the three-month Government of Canada T-bill rate from January 1989 to September 2018. The line chart shows the annual share of household debt to disposable income in Ontario.

Source: Ontario Public Accounts, 2019 Ontario Budget and FAO. Future price gains are expected to be more moderate as compared with those prior to 2018, averaging 4.9 per cent over the 2019 to 2022 period.

In nominal terms, growth in GDP slowed slightl y—f rom 3.9% in 2018 to 3.6% in 2019. As highlighted in Chapter I, Section C: Respecting Consumers and Families, there is evidence housing construction has fallen short of meeting underlying demand.

These data incorporate new and revised data, as well as updated data on seasonal trends. The weakness in business investment is limiting the capacity of the economy to grow and create jobs. The Ministry of Finance is forecasting Ontario’s real GDP to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2019, 1.5 per cent in 2020, 1.5 per cent in 2021 and 1.9 per cent in 2022.

Net debt has been restated from 2001–02 onward for the adjustments resulting from the revised accounting treatment of jointly sponsored pension plans.

Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 12.3% in the second quarter (April, May, June) of 2020, reflecting the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provincial economy. The borrowing program is forecast to be $31.7 billion in 2020–21 and $31.2 billion in 2021–22. As a result of the hard work by Ontarians to grow the economy and the government’s efforts to eliminate wasteful spending, the Province is able to allocate an additional $1.3 billion towards critical services such as health care, education, child care and social programs.

It was also elevated throughout other times of the year. Ontario real GDP growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018, 1.8 per cent in 2019, 1.7 per cent in 2020, and 1.5 per cent in 2021.