Dynamic models of ecosystem processes and services translate what is known about biophysical functions of ecosystems and landscapes or water systems into information about the provision of goods and services that are important to society (Daily and Matson, 2008). Climate Change Technology Program [DOE, 2009c]) have suggested that priority areas for strategic investment in the energy sector should include energy end use and infrastructure, sustainable energy supply, carbon sequestration, and reduction of non-CO2 GHG emissions.
Therefore, in the context of climate change, a better understanding of human behavior and of the role of institutions and organizations is as fundamental to effective decision making as a better understanding of the climate system.
The Summit focused on key sectors where action can make the most differenceâheavy industry, nature-based solutions, cities, energy, resilience, and climate finance.
but rather to characterize it and help decision makers make informed and robust decisions in the face of uncertainty (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002), for instance by adopting an adaptive risk-management approach to decision making (see Box 3.1). • Expand observations and understanding of aerosols, especially their radiative forcing effects and implications for strategies that might be taken to limit the magnitude of future climate change; • Improve understanding of cloud processes, and cloud-aerosol interactions, especially in the context of radiative forcing, climate feedbacks, and precipitation processes. Many societal and cultural changes can be traced to the confluence of individual and organizational decision making, which is shaped by institutions that reward some actions and sanction others, and by technologies. The NRC report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) recommends that the federal government “expand and maintain national observation systems to provide information needed for climate decision support.
Climate models simulate how the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface respond to increasing concentrations of GHGs and other climate drivers that vary over time (see Chapter 6).
This was by far the largest number of countries ever to sign an international agreement on a single day. There are a number of barriers to the adoption of technologies that could potentially reduce GHG emissions.
Aerosols and aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties play an important role in offsetting some of the warming associated with GHG emissions and may have important implications for several proposed strategies for limiting the magnitude of climate change (see Theme 4).
Such models are critical in allowing particular land, freshwater, or ocean use decisions to be evaluated in terms of resulting values to decision makers and society; for evaluating the effects of specific policies on the provision of goods and services; or for assessing trade-offs and side benefits of particular choices of land or water use.
Cloud processes modulate future changes in temperature and in the hydrologic cycle and thus represent a key feedback.
tive shortcuts that may deviate substantially from what would result from a careful analysis (e.g., Gigerenzer, 2008; Nichols, 1999).
How can a research program provide information that will assist decision makers in such regions? People commonly have difficulty making good sense and use of information that is probabilistic and uncertain. Climate Change Solutions —our brand new, biweekly newsletter highlighting practical, sustainable, and equitable solutions to climate change; EESI Update — EESI Update comes out 4 times a year to keep our friends and supporters informed about our ongoing work. • Develop and evaluate strategies for promoting the use of less-emission-intensive modes of transportation.
Climate change represents a special challenge for human comprehension (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009). frequencies, storm surge levels, risks associated with different development setback limits, numbers of endangered species in exposed coastal ecosystems, habitat changes, and changes in water supply and quality parameters.
Progress in both regional and global climate modeling cannot occur in isolation. Widespread adoption of new transportation or energy technologies would also demand significant restructuring of the nation’s existing transportation and energy infrastructure, and scientific and engineering research will play an important role in optimizing that design. Numerous scientific and engineering disciplines contribute to the development and implementation of energy technology options: the physical, biological, and engineering sciences, for example, are all critical for the development of new technologies, while the social sciences play a key role in both technology development and technology deployment and adoption.
An example of the use of vulnerability assessments in the context of climate-related decision making in the coastal zone can be found in Box 4.2.
• Advance understanding of how climate change will affect transportation systems and how to reduce vulnerability to these impacts. with common situations or common interests (such as the developed nations), takes as input the commitments to GHG emissions reductions each bloc might be willing to make, and generates projected emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, temperature, and sea level rise over the next 100 years. Data assimilation, analysis, and reanalysis are also becoming increasingly important for areas other than regional and global atmospheric models, such as ocean models, land models, marine ecosystems, cryosphere models, and atmospheric chemistry models. An improved understanding of the likelihood and potential consequences of these changes will be important for setting GHG emissions-reduction targets and for developing adaptation strategies that are robust in the face of uncertainty. Burning fossil fuels is the major contributor to climate.
For example, data for the ocean, atmosphere, and land are typically assimilated separately in different models and frameworks.
Finally, because most of the themes include research that contributes both to fundamental scientific understanding and to more informed decision making, research under all seven themes would benefit from, Crosscutting Themes for the New Era of Climate Change Research, Research to Improve Understanding of Human-Environment Systems, Climate Forcings, Feedbacks, Responses, and Thresholds in the Earth System, Climate-related Human Behaviors and Institutions, Research to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses of Coupled Human-Environment Systems, Research to Support Strategies for Limiting Climate Change, Effective Information and Decision-Support Systems, Research Tools and Approaches to Improve Both Understanding and Responses, Improved Projections, Analyses, and Assessments. Improvements in data assimilation systems have led directly to substantial improvements in numerical weather prediction over the past several decades by improving the realism of the initial conditions used to run weather forecast models. • Improve understanding of links between air quality and climate change and develop strategies that can limit the magnitude of climate change while improving air quality.